Is the 4% rule still safe?

For a 30-year retirement with a balanced portfolio it has historically held up in the US. For 40 to 50 years, or with lower expected returns, a rate closer to 3.5% gives more margin. The scenarios on this page show how your own plan behaves.

Does the 4% rule include inflation?

Yes. You take 4% of your savings in the first year, then raise that amount by inflation every year, regardless of what markets do. This calculator works the same way.

How much do I need for the 4% rule?

25 times your yearly spending from savings. Spending $40,000 a year means $1,000,000. If a pension covers part of it, you only need 25 times the rest.

What if markets crash right after I retire?

That is the main risk, called sequence of returns risk. Spending a little less after bad years, keeping a cash buffer, or working part-time for a few years all help a lot.

4% rule calculator

The 4% rule says you can spend 4% of your savings in your first year of retirement, then raise that amount with inflation each year, and have a good chance of lasting 30 years. See what it means for your savings, and test other rates.

On trackYou're on trackYour money lasts until age 95 in 91% of market scenarios and in 100% of real market periods since 1871. With steady returns, $2,062,983 would be left in today's money.See the full results

Your plan

Quick start: pick the closest, then adjust

Today

Your age

yrs

Invested savings

Monthly contribution

Retirement

Retire at age

yrs

Money must last until age

yrs

How you'll spend in retirement

Initial withdrawal ratethen raised with inflation

Other income and one-offs

Income (per month, today's money: pension, part-time work, rent)

$fromto

One-off amounts (inheritance, house sale, big purchase)

Assumptions

Annual returnbefore inflation and fees

A global stock fund has averaged around 7% a year before inflation over long periods; bonds less.

Inflation

At 4% a year

$3,748/month

from your savings of $1,124,260 at 55, in today's money, rising with inflation.

With a steady return it lasts until 95. It lasts in 91% of market scenarios. The rate that lasts exactly to 95 with a steady return is about $5,465/month.

Results

On track

You're on track

Your money lasts until age 95 in 91% of market scenarios and in 100% of real market periods since 1871. With steady returns, $2,062,983 would be left in today's money.

Savings at 55

$1,124,260

155% of the $725,602 needed

Monthly spending at retirement

$3,748

then rises with inflation

Market scenarios that last

91%

100% of real periods since 1871

Initial withdrawal rate

4.0%

above the common 3.5–4% guideline

Earliest age you could retire withdrawing 4% a year: 45Assumes steady returns. Check the scenarios column in "Your options" before you pick an age.

Your savings over time

In today's money

Savings Money you put in Middle half of market scenarios Income starts or one-off amount

Your options

On track

What would change the outcome. Amounts in today's money.

Coast FIRE
You've reached your Coast FIRE number of $481,088: with no more contributions, growth alone would get you to what you need at 55.
If returns are lower than you expect
- At 6.0% a year instead of 7.0%, your money still lasts until 95.
- At 5.0% a year instead of 7.0%, your money still lasts until 95.
What fees cost you
Fees of 0.20% a year leave you $19,280 less on the day you retire.

Compare retirement ages

The same plan if you stop working earlier or later.

Retire at	Savings then	You could spend	Steady returns	Scenarios
45earliest	$600,000	$2,773/mo	Lasts, $1,513,615 left	89%
52-3 yrs	$943,810	$4,491/mo	Lasts, $1,877,906 left	90%
53-2 yrs	$1,001,506	$4,797/mo	Lasts, $1,937,411 left	89%
54-1 yr	$1,061,622	$5,121/mo	Lasts, $1,999,069 left	89%
55your plan	$1,124,260	$5,465/mo	Lasts, $2,062,983 left	91%
56+1 yr	$1,189,526	$5,831/mo	Lasts, $2,129,262 left	91%
57+2 yrs	$1,257,530	$6,220/mo	Lasts, $2,198,018 left	92%
58+3 yrs	$1,328,386	$6,635/mo	Lasts, $2,269,366 left	92%
60+5 yrs	$1,479,142	$7,549/mo	Lasts, $2,420,327 left	93%

Today's money. "You could spend" is the monthly amount that lasts exactly until 95 with steady returns, including other income. "Scenarios" is the share of market scenarios in which your plan lasts.

Details

Random market scenarios

91%

of 1,000 scenarios last until age 95. Each one replays your plan with returns that swing from year to year (a typical swing of ±12% around your 6.8% after fees), and inflation that drifts around your 2.5%.

Savings at 55 in poor markets (1 in 10): $765,983
When it fails, money runs out around: age 86 and 10 months

Real market history

100%

of 103 real periods last until age 95. Each period starts your plan in a different year from 1871 and uses what US stocks and government bonds actually returned after inflation, for a 60% stocks mix, minus your fees.

Worst year to start: 1956, and it still lasts.

A high share means your plan has room for bad years. These are illustrations, not forecasts. Change your investment mix under "More options".

On track · 91% of scenarios

Where the 4% comes from

The rule comes from US research in the 1990s, best known from William Bengen's work and the later Trinity study. They looked at historical US stock and bond returns and found that a starting withdrawal of about 4%, raised with inflation, survived every 30-year period in the data.

Two caveats matter for early retirees. Thirty years is short if you stop work at 45, and the US had an unusually good century. Many people retiring early plan on 3.25 to 3.75% instead, or keep the option to cut spending after a bad year.

How to use this calculator

Change the withdrawal rate under "How you'll spend in retirement" and watch the scenario success rate. Set "Money must last until age" to your real horizon, not 30 years by default. If you expect a pension later, add it: the % applies to your savings and the pension comes on top.

Questions people ask

Is the 4% rule still safe?: For a 30-year retirement with a balanced portfolio it has historically held up in the US. For 40 to 50 years, or with lower expected returns, a rate closer to 3.5% gives more margin. The scenarios on this page show how your own plan behaves.
Does the 4% rule include inflation?: Yes. You take 4% of your savings in the first year, then raise that amount by inflation every year, regardless of what markets do. This calculator works the same way.
How much do I need for the 4% rule?: 25 times your yearly spending from savings. Spending $40,000 a year means $1,000,000. If a pension covers part of it, you only need 25 times the rest.
What if markets crash right after I retire?: That is the main risk, called sequence of returns risk. Spending a little less after bad years, keeping a cash buffer, or working part-time for a few years all help a lot.

Keep going

For education only, not personal financial advice. Your inputs stay in your browser.