Early retirement calculator

Find the earliest age you can stop working with the life you want, and compare what one, two or five more years would change. Bridge the gap to your pension, and test your plan against bad markets.
TightYour plan works, but it is tightIt lasts until 95 if markets deliver your 7.0% every year, but only in 79% of market scenarios and in 93% of real market periods since 1871. A few bad years early in retirement could break it.See the full results

Your plan

Quick start: pick the closest, then adjust
Today
yrs
$
$
Retirement
yrs
yrs
How you'll spend in retirement
$
Other income and one-offs
Income (per month, today's money: pension, part-time work, rent)
One-off amounts (inheritance, house sale, big purchase)
Assumptions
before inflation and fees
%

A global stock fund has averaged around 7% a year before inflation over long periods; bonds less.

%

Earliest retirement age

47

is the first age at which your planned spending lasts until 95 with a steady return. You plan to retire at 50.

Your plan at 50 lasts in 79% of market scenarios. See "Compare retirement ages" below for each age around it.

Results

Tight

Your plan works, but it is tight

It lasts until 95 if markets deliver your 7.0% every year, but only in 79% of market scenarios and in 93% of real market periods since 1871. A few bad years early in retirement could break it.

Savings at 50
$867,793
141% of the $613,720 needed
Monthly spending at retirement
$3,500
then rises with inflation
Market scenarios that last
79%
93% of real periods since 1871
Initial withdrawal rate
4.8%
above the common 3.5–4% guideline
Earliest age you could retire with this spending: 47 (9 years from now)Assumes steady returns. Check the scenarios column in "Your options" before you pick an age.

Your savings over time

In today's money
Savings Money you put in Middle half of market scenarios Income starts or one-off amount

The best quarter of scenarios goes above the top of the chart.

Your options

Tight

What would change the outcome. Amounts in today's money. The first two lines assume steady returns: aim past them to leave room for bad years.

  • Monthly contribution

    With steady returns you'd still be on track investing $1,114 a month. The $1,386 you invest on top is your margin for bad markets.
  • Spending in retirement

    With steady returns you could spend up to $4,548 a month and still last until 95, $1,048 more than you plan.
  • Coast FIRE

    With $374,802 invested today you could stop contributing and growth alone would get you to what you need at 50. On your current plan you get there at age 43.
  • If returns are lower than you expect

    • At 6.0% a year instead of 7.0%, your money still lasts until 95.
    • At 5.0% a year instead of 7.0%, your money runs out at 87 and 6 months.
  • What fees cost you

    Fees of 0.20% a year leave you $14,871 less on the day you retire.

Compare retirement ages

The same plan if you stop working earlier or later.

Retire atYou could spendScenariosAction
47earliest$3,599/mo53%
48-2 yrs$3,898/mo62%
49-1 yr$4,214/mo71%
50your plan$4,548/mo79%
51+1 yr$4,902/mo86%
52+2 yrs$5,276/mo90%
53+3 yrs$5,673/mo93%
55+5 yrs$6,541/mo98%

Today's money. "You could spend" is the monthly amount that lasts exactly until 95 with steady returns, including other income. "Scenarios" is the share of market scenarios in which your plan lasts.

Details

Random market scenarios

79%

of 1,000 scenarios last until age 95. Each one replays your plan with returns that swing from year to year (a typical swing of ±12% around your 6.8% after fees), and inflation that drifts around your 2.5%.

Savings at 50 in poor markets (1 in 10)
$600,097
When it fails, money runs out around
age 73 and 1 month

Real market history

93%

of 96 real periods last until age 95. Each period starts your plan in a different year from 1871 and uses what US stocks and government bonds actually returned after inflation, for a 60% stocks mix, minus your fees.

Worst year to start: 1962, when the money runs out at 67.

Bad years early in retirement are the main danger. Flexible spending, a cash buffer or retiring a little later all raise these numbers. These are illustrations, not forecasts. Change your investment mix under "More options".

Tight · 79% of scenarios

The two phases of early retirement

Retiring early usually means two phases: the bridge years, when your savings pay for everything, and the years after a state or work pension starts. The bridge is the expensive part. Add your pension under "Other income" so the calculator only asks your savings to cover the gap.

A long retirement also means more exposure to a bad decade of markets. Watch the scenario success rate rather than only the steady-return answer, and keep some flexibility in your spending.

Questions people ask

How much do I need to retire at 50?
Roughly 25 to 30 times the yearly spending your savings must cover, less if a pension starts later. The calculator gives you the exact amount for your plan.
Can I access my retirement accounts early?
It depends on your country. In the US there are ways to reach 401(k) and IRA money before 59½ (a Roth conversion ladder, or 72(t) equal payments). In the UK pensions open at 57 from 2028. Plan the bridge with accessible money.
What withdrawal rate is safe for a 45-year retirement?
Many early retirees plan around 3.25 to 3.75% rather than 4%. Check the scenarios with your own numbers.
Is it worth working one more year?
Each extra year adds a year of saving, a year of growth and a year less to fund. The "Compare retirement ages" table shows exactly what it is worth for you.

Keep going

For education only, not personal financial advice. Your inputs stay in your browser.